Premier Christy Clark speaks to LNG conference in Vancouver

Difficult birth for LNG cash cow

Before Premier Christy Clark can launch a natural gas prosperity fund, BC has to stop the bleeding from loss of US exports

VICTORIA – Debate is underway on the B.C. Liberal government’s tax and environmental plan for liquefied natural gas exports, amid the usual political theatre.

Most media reported that the government “slashed” its proposed seven-per-cent LNG processing income tax by half, caving in to demands of international energy giants led by Petronas of Malaysia.

The 3.5 per cent tax wouldn’t even take full effect until the massive capital investment is written down, and would rise to five per cent after 20 years of production. All of this casts further doubt on Premier Christy Clark’s extravagant election campaign promise to use LNG revenues to wipe out B.C.’s debt, currently approaching $70 billion, and provide an Alberta-style “prosperity fund” to perform further miracles.

The seven per cent figure was the top end of the range presented this spring while negotiations with LNG investors were ongoing, so it’s not really accurate to say it was “slashed.” This cash calf hasn’t been born yet, and it remains to be seen if it will survive.

Finance Minister Mike de Jong pointed out some of the shifts in the global gas market that have reduced expectations. Japan, one of the potential investors, is considering restarting its nuclear plants as it recovers from the 2011 Fukushima earthquake.

China’s manic growth is slowing, and it has signed a long-term deal to import cheaper Russian pipeline gas. Oil prices have dropped.

The government’s change of tone started with the recent throne speech, which emphasized the fate of B.C.’s only current export market.

“Like forestry, B.C.’s natural gas industry has relied on exports to the United States,” the speech observed. “But the American shale gas revolution has meant the export south has dried up – and is never coming back.”

So before B.C. gets to that prosperity fund, it’s got to stop the bleeding. You may recall it was a U.S. hurricane-induced spike in gas revenues that allowed the province to spread an extra billion to calm its labour waters for the 2010 Olympics.

The finance ministry estimates that after the startup period, a medium-sized LNG export operation would pay total taxes of around $800 million a year to the province. De Jong notes that this is more revenue than B.C. will collect from the entire forest industry this year, from a single plant. There are 18 currently proposed.

This new LNG income tax is nowhere near the biggest source. It’s bigger than the carbon tax that LNG producers will pay on fuel use, but only a fourth of what B.C. collects in royalties for selling the gas.

The biggest source of revenue from this hoped-for plant is “other taxes,” which include sales tax and corporate income tax, which B.C. increased to 11 per cent last year.

University of Calgary economist Jack Mintz, who supported B.C. on its ill-fated harmonized sales tax, says this additional LNG tax is wrong-headed at any rate.

“If other provinces take the same view with respect to resource taxation, new levies would be applied to oil refining, forest product manufacturing, mining processing and a host of other activities linked to resource industries,” Mintz wrote last week in the Financial Post.

If B.C. does get a substantial LNG export industry, it will include gas from Alberta, with royalties going there, not here. And companies are also wrangling with the federal government over its taxes, with local governments and First Nations still in line for their cut.

The big question isn’t whether B.C. will get its fair share. It’s whether there will be anything to share.

Tom Fletcher is legislature reporter and columnist for Black Press. Twitter: @tomfletcherbc

Just Posted

Neighbour details hearing ‘thuds’ the day girls found dead in Oak Bay

Jury at double-murder trial hears from Andrew Berry’s neighbour

International, Disney and Hallmark films set to be filmed in Victoria in 2019

Local and international production companies seeking out film locations in town

‘Goodness prevails’: neighbours reflect following suspicious death of 60-year-old Metchosin man

Martin Payne was found dead in his Metchosin home on Friday. Police have confirmed foul play.

Family cycling affair Tour de Victoria rolls into ninth year

Riders can sign up for the 160 km Factor race, or distances of 140, 100, 60 30 0r 15 kilometers

Repatriation efforts work to heal and connect through history: Royal BC Museum

Victoria museum’s efforts bolstered by B.C. repatriation grant

VIDEO: Sparrows raise their chicks in Cadboro Bay deck planter

Jill Yoneda captured 11 days up close with tiny Junco sparrows

Greater Victoria wanted list for the week of July 16

Greater Victoria Crime Stoppers is seeking the public’s help in locating the… Continue reading

Olympic softball qualifier gets $150K boost from provincial government

2019 Americas Qualifier to be held in Surrey from Aug. 25-Sept. 1

Gas price inquiry questions Trans Mountain capacity, company denies collusion

The first of up to four days of oral hearings in the inquiry continue in Vancouver

‘Benzos’ and fentanyl a deadly cocktail causing a growing concern on B.C. streets

Overdoses caused by benzodiazepines can’t be reversed with opioid-overdose antidote naloxone

Chinook retention begins on North Island, but amid new size limit

DFO calls measures ‘difficult but necessary’ following rockslide on Fraser River

Will you be celebrating national hotdog day with any of these crazy flavours?

The popularity of hotdogs spans generations, cultures

Former home of accused Penticton shooter vandalized

Ex-wife of man who is accused of murdering four people had her house vandalized

Survivor of near-drowning in B.C. lake viewing life through new eyes

“If I died that day, the baby wouldn’t know his dad,” said 31-year-old Mariano Santander-Melo.

Most Read